Capital Market Outlook

IN THIS ISSUE

• Macro Strategy — Taking Stock of the Four Horsemen of U.S. Public Sector Finances: We foresee the maintenance of the status quo over the next few years for Demographics, Defense, Decarbonization and Debt—i.e., deficits remain large and debt levels concerning, overlaid with associated risks.
  
  
• Market View — The July-August Market Selloff and the Economic Cycle: Whether or not the economy enters a recession has often been the main determinant of whether a period of market weakness is short-lived and relatively mild or becomes deeper and more extended.
  
  
• Thought of the Week — Two Years In: An Update on the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act: This made-in-America buildout remains a work in progress and will evolve over years rather than quarters, but we continue to believe that federal stimulus will be a tailwind for corporate earnings.